Diffusion-of-innovation theory

Technology, and people’s strategy for dealing with it, intersect.

The general public tends to perceive technology as “good” or “bad” and people as “optimistic” or “pessimistic” about its role in their lives. But people who work in tech, and develop it for mass consumption, use a more flexible approach called “diffusion of innovation” theory.

In this approach, the population is assembled along a bell curve according to their willingness to deal with technological glitches. Technology penetrates this bell-curve in accordance with its utility and reliability.

Modified from Crossing the Chasm, by Geoffrey A. Moore. ©Todreamalife, 2022

Where do you fit on the curve?

In the technology adoption life cycle, people tend to group into five general attitudes, also described by Moore in his excellent 1991 book Crossing the Chasm.

Innovators or “techies” adopt tech because they like building new things. With in-depth technical knowledge, they truly enjoy the trial-and-error process of getting a new product up and running because they feel competent to repair it.

Early Adopters or “visionaries” adopt tech because it gives them social capital or solves a problem they are invested in. While they might not like to deal with technical glitches, they are undeterred by them. Visionaries will seek out solutions and inform iterations because they can visualize a future value for the working product.

Early Majority or “pragmatists” adopt tech because it confers a relative advantage to their workflow. However, they won’t tolerate tech that has errors, or breaks down because a pragmatist’s primary concern is not the future, but the present.

The Late Majority or “conservatives” adopt tech when when it becomes inconvenient not to use it. They require tech that’s been tested by people they know personally. Most people in this category are willing to accept a little criticism for being “behind” so that they never have to deal with technological glitches which they might lack expertise or inclination to repair. Sometimes conservatives see themselves in the role of defending vetted practices against meaningless change, and want a new technology to prove itself over time. They play a crucial role in refining tech, by creating a market for simplified and economical versions of existing products.

Laggards or “skeptics” choose not to adopt tech no matter how ubiquitous or useful it becomes. Although this labeling can be pejorative (originally created from the perspective of developers), people like the Amish who refuse to adopt technology contribute significantly to society by preserving skills which would otherwise be lost, or spurring ethical and moral debates on the meaning of technology.

A new tech will be adopted by the various groups in sequence depending on how refined it becomes. For example, even the Amish sometimes use cars, and most people in the developing world have a cell phone. But in reality, most individuals fit into multiple categories depending on the topic (i.e. computing, cars, or biomedical), and their access to tech.

Where does technology fit on the curve?

Everyone benefits from scientific advances. If they work.

The “chasm” is the gap between when something is first discovered and seen to be valuable by the early market (techies and visionaries), and when it becomes useful and refined enough for the late market (pragmatists, conservatives and skeptics). In general high-tech refers to products that have not yet “crossed the chasm”.

Aside from the hype, hotbeds of modern innovation like Silicon Valley are simply microcosms that specialize in helping products across the chasm.

A vetted practice involves assembly of small “agile development” groups where techies, visionaries, and pragmatists work in close collaboration. When talented people with interdisciplinary training are forced by proximity to communicate it breaks down paradigms, and creates shared meaning.

The group then collectively iterates to develop a “minimum viable product” or “beachhead” which is the simplest version of the tech acceptable to a pragmatist in the crucible of the real world.

In conclusion

It’s okay if you don’t like technology, and it’s okay if you do.

Technology is refined faster when a pragmatist is willing to explain to a visionary what prevents them from using a new product.

Having this discussion in an unbiased manner is one of the most critical points in the development of any technology. It also puts the onus for proving “minimum viable product” on unbiased markers independent of commercial advertising and personal opinion.

Reprinted with permission from ShareSmart.